Recently, the American film company KODK announced a deal with the US government to manufacture generic pharmaceuticals in the US.
After the announcement, the company's stock price increased from around $2 on July 27 to $50 on July 29. Before this announcement, there was significant trading activity, leading some to speculate that the company's executives were involved in insider trading.
Others have dismissed the accusations of insider trading and have instead attributed the unusual volume of trading to a mishandled press embargo.
These days, the majority of class action lawsuits against KODK seemingly focuses on two particular points.
The CEO Jim Continenza bought 46,737 shares on 6/23/2020 (prior to the drug deal announcement). However, the company has defended this by pointing out that Mr. Continenza regularly makes similarly sized purchases of his company's stock every fiscal quarter + he hasn't sold any of his holdings.
The CEO Jim Continenza was granted options on 6/27/2030 (prior to the drug deal announcement). However, the company has defended this by pointing out that Mr. Continenza was granted these options in order to shield him from potential dilution as a result of a debt-equity swap
Question about this
Based on the information provided, what is the likelihood that KODK could be found guilty of insider trading from a legal standpoint?